德国的统一和崛起
1871年，普鲁士建立了统一的德意志帝国，德国终于成为一个国家站在世界舞台上。
关税同盟将普鲁士和周围的一个个小的邦国联合起来。德意志当时36个邦，28个邦加入。 关税同盟不光是利益捆绑，还给了普鲁士巨大的实力优势。
普鲁士统一德国总共打了三场战争
- 打丹麦
- 打奥地利
- 打法国
保证三场战争胜利的是外交的胜利，也是德国的另外一个秘密 – 俾斯麦的外交
德国统一要靠铁和血 – 俾斯麦
19世纪外交史上只能找一位大师级人物的话，那一定是俾斯麦
ChatGPT: Otto von Bismarck was a Prussian statesman and politician who served as the Chancellor of Germany from 1871 to 1890. He is widely regarded as the “Architect of the German Nation,” as he played a key role in the unification of Germany and the establishment of the German Empire.
Bismarck was born into a noble family in Prussia and served in various government and diplomatic positions before being appointed Chancellor in 1871. He was a shrewd and cunning politician who used diplomacy, military force, and cunning political maneuvering to achieve his goals. He was instrumental in the wars against Denmark (1864), Austria (1866), and France (1870-71), which helped to establish Prussian dominance in Germany and pave the way for German unification.
Bismarck was also known for his conservative political views and his opposition to socialism and democracy. He implemented a series of reforms aimed at strengthening the power of the state and preserving social order, including the introduction of Germany’s first welfare state.
俾斯麦的外交逻辑 - 尽可能孤立对手
德国如何实现20年的和平崛起？
Thucydides Trap 没有在德国发生。 归功于新帝国掌舵人 - 俾斯麦
Thucydides Trap is a term used to describe a situation in which a rising power (e.g. China) threatens to displace an established power (e.g. United States), leading to a heightened risk of conflict. The concept is named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. The idea is that when a rising power and an established power are competing for influence and power, the risk of conflict is higher than when either power is dominant.
他认为，强者必遭嫉妒，这是人性，所以他一开始就提醒德国人，德国不能追求过多的优势，否则欧洲的政治结构会承受不了，德国会陷入和全欧洲开战的困境。
- 放低姿态，韬光养晦， 但无法避免欧洲的结构性变化
俾斯麦意识到面对的是一种客观的大潮流，只能像水手一样抢在它前面去驾驭它。 – 英国历史学家霍布斯鲍姆 《帝国的年代》
- 编织欧洲的结盟网络
- 利益捆绑，但每个具体同盟里，德国的利益都要小于其他国家
- 讲究平衡
Prompt: How Germany grow to a strong country after Prussia unified Germany? After the unification of Germany in 1871, the country underwent significant economic, social, and political changes that helped it become a strong and prosperous nation. Some of the key factors that contributed to Germany’s growth include:
Rapid Industrialization: Germany’s rapid industrialization in the late 19th and early 20th centuries played a crucial role in its growth. The country had a well-developed infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and access to abundant natural resources, which allowed it to become a major industrial power.
Scientific and Technological Advances: Germany was at the forefront of many scientific and technological innovations during this time. The country’s strong education system and investment in research and development helped drive technological advances in fields such as chemistry, physics, and engineering.
Economic Reforms: Germany’s strong central government and efficient bureaucracy helped to promote economic stability and growth. The country implemented various economic reforms, such as the establishment of a national banking system and the protection of private property rights, that helped create a favorable business environment.
Expansion of Trade and Investment: Germany’s growing economy led to the expansion of trade and investment both within Europe and around the world. The country became a major exporter of goods, such as steel, chemicals, and machinery, and established a strong presence in international markets.
Strong Military: Germany’s powerful military was a key factor in its growth. The country’s military prowess helped it to establish its position as a major power in Europe, and its strong army and navy were seen as symbols of national pride and strength.
Overall, these and other factors helped Germany to become one of the strongest and most prosperous countries in Europe by the early 20th century, and its influence continues to be felt today.
Prompt: How can it keep the peace duration for about 20 years during the growth?
ChatGPT: The peace that Germany experienced during its period of growth can be attributed to a number of factors, including:
Diplomatic Efforts: The German government engaged in active diplomacy, striving to maintain good relations with other European powers and to resolve disputes peacefully. The country’s leaders worked to avoid conflict and to maintain stability in Europe through diplomatic channels.
Balance of Power: The balance of power in Europe was maintained through a system of alliances and the presence of a number of strong and competing powers. This prevented any one country from becoming too dominant and helped to maintain stability.
Economic Interdependence: The growth of trade and investment helped to create a strong economic interdependence between European countries. This made it more difficult for countries to engage in conflict, as it would have disrupted the economic relationships that had been established.
International Institutions: The establishment of international institutions, such as the International Court of Justice, helped to promote peace by providing a forum for resolving disputes peacefully and by establishing international norms and standards.
Cultural Exchange: The growth of cultural exchange and increased travel helped to promote understanding and cooperation between different countries. This increased awareness of other cultures and ways of life helped to reduce tensions and promote peace.
It is worth noting that while Germany experienced a period of relative peace and stability during this time, it was not immune to conflict and tensions continued to exist both domestically and internationally. Nevertheless, the overall trend during this period was one of relative peace and stability, which helped to facilitate Germany’s growth and prosperity.
德国工业的赶超
“德国制造”一开始也是劣质产品的代名词
- 统一红利 国内大市场
- 时机红利，赶上第二次工业革命
- 关税红利，放弃自由贸易，实行高关税
- 战争红利，法国洛林
和美国的工业化的区别，德国走纵深化发展。靠创新、技术、专利。因为规模效应走不通，但教育水平是优势。
用国家力量推动科学研究和科技应用
专利制度限制方法，不限制产品，导致一旦有新产品出现，各个公司就会竞相寻找新方法来生产新产品，导致各个公司联合科学家建立自己的研究室，从而将国立科研机构、德国大学连成一条完整的产业链。
The rapid growth of industry in Germany during the time of Chancellor Otto von Bismarck (1862-1890) was due to a combination of factors, including:
Political Stability: Bismarck’s strong, centralized government helped to provide political stability and create a favorable environment for economic growth. The country’s efficient bureaucracy and stable legal system helped to attract investment and support the growth of industry.
Access to Natural Resources: Germany was rich in natural resources, such as coal, iron ore, and water power, which were essential to the growth of its industrial sector.
Strong Transportation Network: The country had a well-developed transportation network, including a system of canals, railroads, and ports, which facilitated the movement of goods and helped to support the growth of industry.
Investment in Education and Research: The German government invested heavily in education and research, which helped to create a well-educated workforce and a culture of innovation. This allowed the country to quickly adopt new technologies and to become a leader in fields such as chemistry, physics, and engineering.
Protectionist Policies: Bismarck’s government implemented protectionist policies, such as high tariffs, that helped to support the growth of German industry by making it more difficult for foreign competitors to enter the market.
Encouragement of Private Enterprise: The government encouraged private enterprise and did not interfere in the workings of the market, allowing companies to grow and thrive.
德国为什么陷入强者困境
1890年，德国历史的分水岭：俾斯麦下台。
俾斯麦的20年，最后留下了一个没有独立思考能力，只能依靠大人物替自己做主的民族。 – 德国思想家马克思韦伯
德国新领导人放弃了多边外交联盟，把复杂关系一刀切；以及过度追求威望; 高度强硬偏好的民意。
德国最大失误 – 大海军战略
大海军战略的由来
- 实力增长，海外贸易增长
- 保护海外贸易
- 有能力
为什么是重大战略失误？ – 直接威胁英国的海洋地位，导致英国加速海军军舰扩张，同时联合法国俄国对德国形成包围；另外德国的陆军才决定生死，海军被英国舰队封锁，无用武之地。
德国人如果拿造军舰的钱和钢铁来加强陆军的话，那德军在欧洲大陆稳操胜券 – 剑桥大学历史学家 A.J.P.泰勒
不过德国的海军实力非常强，只不过在战略上的方向性错误，加上外交的失误，从而让自己陷入整体上的被动。
施利芬计划
老毛奇：统一后的战争预见是西守东功，配合外交结束战争 施利芬：目标是把对手彻底打败
Prompt: What is Schlieffen Plan and what’s the result after executing?
The Schlieffen Plan was a military strategy developed by the German General Staff in the early 20th century. It was named after its chief architect, Count Alfred von Schlieffen. The plan was developed in response to Germany’s potential military conflict on two fronts, against France in the west and Russia in the east. The plan’s goal was to quickly defeat France in a quick and decisive war, so that the German military could then be redirected to the east to fight Russia.
The Schlieffen Plan called for a massive invasion of France through neutral Belgium, which would allow the German army to bypass the heavily fortified borders of France. The plan relied on the ability of the German army to move quickly and decisively through Belgium, and then to encircle and defeat the French army in a quick and decisive battle.
The Schlieffen Plan was put into action in August 1914, when Germany declared war on Russia and invaded Belgium. The initial stages of the plan were successful, as the German army quickly advanced through Belgium and into France. However, the plan eventually failed due to a number of factors, including resistance from Belgian and French forces, logistical difficulties, and the unexpectedly strong resistance of the French army.
The result of the Schlieffen Plan was the beginning of World War I, which lasted from 1914 to 1918 and had far-reaching and devastating effects on the world. The failure of the plan to achieve its goals, and the long and bloody trench warfare that resulted, had a profound impact on the German military and political leadership and contributed to the eventual defeat of Germany in the war. The Schlieffen Plan is widely considered to be one of the key factors that led to the outbreak of World War I, and its failure had a profound impact on the course of the war and the future of Europe.
施利芬计划真正的问题是把全部的赌注压在了对法国的决定性胜利上，而且在一战前，施利芬计划是德国唯一的作战计划。
德军之所以第一次世界大战没打好，不是因为施利芬计划不行，恰恰相反，是因为没有严格执行施利芬计划。 - 英国战略家利得尔.哈特