复兴之路
战后联邦德国经济为何迅速复兴
二战后联邦德国的面积缩小到原来德意志帝国的45%，食品、住房等最基本的条件都很难满足，而且东欧和苏联又驱逐了1000多万德意志人，绝大多数又挤进了联邦德国。
事实上，联邦德国的经济到1950年就开始发力，10年之内就再度超过法国和英国，成为西方仅次于美国的第二大经济体。
原因之一是美国援助 - ‘马歇尔计划’，但不能解释西德战后的经济起飞。
真正的原因
- 工业基础留了一些，好过东德
- 人 - 知识层次、专业水平、工业组织能力，最困难的情况下，恢复教育。
- 人口红利 - 来自东德，多数是年轻人，而且知识程度高
- 底层精神力量的激活 — 路德维希.艾哈德
德国人民深深的低下了头，但没有屈服。 – 阿登纳
艾哈德的经济思想：
- 最大可能的保持自由竞争
- 如果一个市场不能保证自由竞争，国家就要出面干预，对垄断进行限制
- 政府要保持对市场的监督和引导
ChatGPT: Ludwig Erhard was a German economist and politician who made a significant contribution to the rebuilding of Germany after World War II. He served as the Minister of Economics in the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) from 1949 to 1963 and as Chancellor from 1963 to 1966.
Erhard’s contributions to Germany can be summarized as follows:
Economic reform: Erhard is best known for his role in implementing the “economic miracle” in West Germany. He was the architect of the country’s post-war economic reforms, which included the introduction of a new currency, the Deutsche Mark, and the liberalization of the economy. These reforms helped to spur economic growth and create jobs, and they made West Germany one of the world’s strongest economies.
Social market economy: Erhard was a strong advocate for the principles of the social market economy, which combined free market capitalism with a strong welfare state. He believed that this economic system was the best way to ensure prosperity and social justice in Germany.
Government intervention: Erhard was a firm believer in limited government intervention in the economy, and he worked to reduce the role of the state in the country’s affairs. He believed that this would create a more efficient and competitive economy, and he implemented policies to encourage private enterprise and reduce government regulations.
International relations: Erhard played a key role in establishing Germany’s membership in the European Economic Community, which later became the European Union. He believed that this would help to promote economic growth and stability in the country and the region.
Overall, Ludwig Erhard’s contributions to Germany were significant, and he is widely regarded as one of the country’s greatest economists and politicians. He helped to restore the country’s prosperity and stability after the war, and he played a key role in the development of the German welfare state and the European Union.
联邦德国如何重新融入欧洲
德国不再是德国，而是欧洲的德国，成为欧洲一体化的一个巨大的推动力。
法国和德国积怨最深。法国战后的报复手段就是占领德国的一个重要工业区 – 萨尔，并且希望永久占领，德国不答应，于是法国外长舒曼提出了舒曼计划，就是把德法两国之间所有的煤钢生产拿出来，交给一个超国家的机构管理，叫做煤钢联营。
煤钢除了工业，更是军事的基础，所以煤钢联营，是瞄着建立欧洲联合去的。
(Schuman Plan) refers to a proposal made by the French Foreign Minister Robert Schuman in 1950, which aimed to create a European coal and steel community. The idea behind the plan was to create a supranational organization that would pool the resources of European countries and work together to promote peace and stability in Europe after the devastation of World War II.
The Schuman Plan proposed the creation of a European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), which would bring together the coal and steel industries of six European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. The ECSC would oversee the production and distribution of coal and steel, with the goal of promoting cooperation and reducing tensions between the participating countries.
The Schuman Plan was seen as a groundbreaking proposal that paved the way for further European integration and the creation of the European Union (EU). It is widely regarded as one of the most important events in European history, and the ECSC is considered to be the first step towards the creation of the EU. Today, the EU continues to build on the legacy of the Schuman Plan, working to promote peace, stability, and prosperity for all Europeans.
1950年，联邦德国和其他西方国家的政治关系、经济关系都迈上了一个新台阶，这一年也是联邦德国经济奇迹的开始之年。
煤钢联营的辐射作用，从德法两国扩大到六国：荷兰、比利时、卢森堡、意大利。 六国是发起欧洲一体化的元老。六个国家形成一个煤钢共同市场，把煤和钢的关税都取消，然后通过六国共同成立的超国家的高级机构，干预和调节煤钢生产。
法德轴心，德国选择低调，韬光养晦。在欧共体内部，德国的人缘比法国更好。
德国怎么重新统一
德国分裂是必然的，但统一却不是必然的。
- 德国统一的时候，冷战并未结束
- 外力也没让两德统一
- 两德统一实际上是西德吞并东德，而且用的时间很短，方式和速度都超出当时所有欧洲政治家的预料
这是人为的结果，起最大作用的是以科尔为总理的西德政府。
时代背景：
- 四十年冷战接近尾声，苏联已经没有能力，也没有意愿继续控制包括东德在内的东欧国家
- 德国被分裂四十年，但统一仍然是两德的民心所向，主要是东德人对西德的向往
- 东德政府不愿意统一
- 统一前，东德GDP只有西德的13%，劳动生产率不到西德的三分之一，科技水平落后20年，实际人均工资收入差了10倍，西德还有世界上最大的社会福利制度
西德怎么做
- 避免冒进。 1989年东欧巨变，西德不谈统一，谈民族感情。 东德政府不让东德人跑到西德，建造了柏林墙。发生巨变后，东德人通过其他国家跑到西德
- 等到东德政府对国内局势失控的时候，就是柏林墙倒塌，西德提出了统一口号。
- 在关键局部使用绝对优势资源
- 西德提出统一构想后，只要求一个前提不能少 – 东德必须搞西方式的自由选举
- 妥善平衡大国
- 取得美国支持
- 让步苏联
- 放弃西德马克这一当时最坚挺的货币，支持用欧元这一法国提出的摄像，赢得法国同意统一
ChatGPT: The Berlin Wall was a barrier that separated West Berlin from East Berlin and the rest of East Germany from 1961 to 1989. It was constructed by the East German government to stop the flow of East Germans to the West, where they were leaving in large numbers in search of greater political freedom and economic opportunity.
The Berlin Wall became a symbol of the Cold War and the division between the Communist East and the democratic West. The wall was heavily guarded, and crossing it was extremely difficult, with many people being shot or arrested while trying to escape to the West.
For nearly three decades, the Berlin Wall stood as a symbol of oppression and division, until its eventual fall in 1989. The fall of the Berlin Wall was a turning point in the Cold War, and it paved the way for the eventual reunification of Germany in 1990.
The story of the Berlin Wall is a powerful reminder of the importance of freedom and the struggle against oppression. It is also a testament to the resilience and determination of people who fought for their rights and sought to reunite their families and communities. Today, the Berlin Wall serves as a monument to the power of freedom and the triumph of democracy over dictatorship.
德国怎么成为欧洲的中心
作为历史上被德国一再侵略的波兰，当然会担心德国的强权，但是现在更担心的是德国不作为，不出来当领导 – 波兰外交部长
成为欧洲中心的关键，是德国处理历史和现实的方式：
- 对待历史：特别注意和纳粹那段历史保持距离。 1970年西德总理勃兰特在波兰犹太人死难者纪念碑前直接下跪谢罪。以及否决将柏林墙倒塌的日子作为德国统一的纪念日，因为那一天是1938年全国性迫害犹太人的”水晶之夜”。
- 对待现实：权力忘却。 德国军队全部在北约框架之下，而且德国特别不愿意增加军费，即便美国对德国施压希望减轻美国负担。
经过2008经济危机，其他欧洲国家看得非常清楚，所以的法德轴心实际只有德国一架发动机能运转，能把大家拉出危机的只有德国。特别是默克尔当总理的十几年，德国基本上就是欧盟的主心骨了。
德国之所以在欧洲处于领导地位，说白了还是因为它的实力